Monthly Archives: August 2011

Wednesday Folkestone Tip – Fallon Special

A quick tip for Folkestone races from the Major to brighten up your Wednesday.  3.20 and a 5f sprint of firmer conditions than we have seen in the last few weeks in Britain.

The selection is a confident one.

Miss Chamanda was pretty poor last time out buy you can forgive that given the mare had the best part of two years off the track.  It was perfectly entitled to need a pipe opener and now the jockey selection looks telling of what the new chapter might hold.

Kieran Fallon is a very eye catching ride and the pick of the form of this horse from its classic year would be good enough regardless.  Dropped to a mark of 72 and at a price of 5/1, the Major is hopeful of big things.

Shabash – Take a slice and thank me later

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Bank Holiday Bonanza – Everyone Ready? Warwick Horseracing Tip… Booooooooom

Bank holiday Monday and there is plenty of racing.  After Fire Lily scored a second for the Major on yesterdays advice, we hope to go one better today.

3.20 Warwick – Conditions Stakes

There are a couple of decent horses at the top of the card for this conditions stakes race.

Colonial and Inler make interesting prospects….Colonial looks the Godolphin main strikeforce, yet Al Aasifth is a very strong candidate.  All are overlooked in favour of….

Forjatt.

This three year old has mis-fired a couple of time but I think the jockey booking is significant.  Evern though Forjatt has not run too well for Neil Callan (one of the Majors favourites) he has had this jockey booked for the big runs.

Roger Varian, the trainer, has seen his star rise this season and Forjatt could show he is yet another useful braying head in a stable door.

My main concern is Inler and I advise a small saver – Inler is getting ideal conditions and although is vulnerable, there are not many obvious candidates…

Forjatt for the Major though and rock on…..

The Major is Back!! The Moyglare at the Curragh and Goodwoods Supreme Stakes

The Major has enjoyed a sojourn in the Vendee of France and must apologise for the first Saturday Sermon we have missed in some time.

When I left England’s fair shores we were in tremendous form, notably picking up Margot Did (adv 33/1) which seemed to score most of Birmingham’s fine denizens a tidy sum judging by the texts, emails, tweets, pints and phone calls received.

Shabash!

Well the Major returns and while the Saturday Sermon may have had an unusual break, Sunday racing is red hot and there are several group races.  Two of which the Major has taken a particularly keen view…..

3.20 Good Wood – Supreme Stakes – Group 3

Good to Soft at Goodwood is about as strong a punting condition as the Major likes.  In a field trading at 4/1 bar, it is manna from horseracing gambling heaven.

Essentially we have a track not suited to all, in conditions not suited to all with 4/1 the shortest price of just ten runners.

I think this is a good storm of clues to the winner in a wide open market so…. where do we go…

Well first, let’s assess those with a decent strike rate on softer ground.  I can rule out most on this score and just about throw Doncaster Rover into the off cuts too.  While he has placed several times on good to soft, it seems good is his best ground and as a 4/1 shot, I want better.

Certain positives for the ground are Balthazars Gift, Hooray, Libranno and The Cheka.

The Cheka is going to have a hard job giving weight all round to this field so is ruled out.  The jury has to remain out on Hooray who would not be a shock at 4/1 if coming good but really has something to prove after flopping in Ireland.

Libranno has some superb Ascot form against Society Rock but followed it up with a stinker at Deauville where if soft ground got the better of him, there are concerns about conditions for tomorrow.  Richard Hughes has spoken softly about this one in the past though and it is reasonable to expect the horse has more to offer.  My main concern is that this is the eighth race this season for the three year old who may just be the type to be well served by a break.

With the three at the top of the market with question marks, you have to take a look at Balthazars Gift at 14/1.  At 8, the horse has few secrets and has little form to his name this year but may be better suited by these softer conditions.

There is rarely a shock in the Supreme with one 14/1 winner the only big price victor of the last 12 years.  After that a 7/1 and 5/1 and then it is favourites largely.  I am not sure I trust the trend emphatically though.

Instinct leads me a different way.  Karam Albaari at 16/1 (Paddy Power / Boylesports) might just be my answer.  Now you must have an imagination for this one but here goes…

On debut he won a reasonable handicap at Kempton before being stepped up in class to Group 2 company in last years Champagne Stakes.  He finished fourth at a royal 50/1 price, no disgrace.  He went on to Group 1 company in the Racing Post Trophy finishing 6th in that Group 1 to Casamento, Native Khan, Master of Hounds and Seville – Blue blood company indeed.

His reappearance has been delayed and conditions have to be taken on trust but…. I cannot help myself from taking a slice of the unknown at 16/1 when so many of the main bunch look dodgy.  Hooray and Libranno are possibly next best but it is Karam Albaari for the Major.

The Moyglare – The Curragh

What a cracker we have to decide on the best current filly in Ireland.  No British raiders, this is an all Irish affair.

Maybe is trading as the warm 5/6 favourite and you can see why… this will be her 5th success on the bounce to maintain an impeccable career.

She is ridden by the young JP O’Brien, who without his claim could have been a liability but after his ride earlier this year on Roderic O Connor, you have to feel the young man is a star in the making alongside William Buick and Michael Barzalona.

I do not feel like backing Maybe though.  This race often springs a surprise and the bet of the card for me is Fire Lily.  10/1 is a fair price for this filly who has gone down to the smart looking Best Terms twice but has beaten After, inbetween.

That form is fine enough but I also think this lady has been looking for a step up to 7f the way she is often flat to the boards and staying on.  In fact I think a mile might be already her optimum distance but an extra 200m tomorrow will certainly help her style of racing.

If anything is to beat the O’Brien star filly, I go for the one from the same ownership, Fire Lily.

Good luck all and shuffle those cards.

Should I stick with Freddy Engles in the prix morny

One advantage of being in galle is that today I am in the home country on the prix morny on the day it is run.

I had half a mind to attempt to be at deauville today but sadly matters conspired against me and it is not conducive to a successful family holiday.

I have however had a look at the morny card. Freddy Engles has dished out the most eye catching two year ok performances I have seen this year – I have been impressed by his turn of foot. Perhaps conditions got the better of him last time in ireland and today’s 2/1 gives some room for having a pop.

That said I cannot back him. Shunting a two year old to deauville when his last outing was a defeat on his travels rings the bells of doubt for the major and so I opt for the entirely unexposed Freddy head horse sofast who can be backed this morning at 9/1 with stan James.

The one thing I am certain about is that Freddy head would not send a speculative punt into this. Sofast has entirely the same connections as supermare goldikova and although raced once and won once is not a lot of evidence to base a bet on – I think the inexperience is baked into the price making it an eye catching price.

I bet it is much shorter than this on the pmu – the paris mutual which is the tote like betting system operated in France where bookmaking is illegal. I will know later when in a seaside town in a quiet bar me and several other Frenchmen will become kindred spirits for a few moments as we watch one of europes best two year old races unfold…..

Ebor Day – one horse, two footy teams

Good morning to you all from the wonderful Vendee where in 36 hours the major has yet to spy a cloud.

Good things about France include the people, longchamps, deauville, merguez, wine, beautiful villages and saucisson.

The language is pretty good too – yes, France is the majors sort of place perhaps when we have finished our warm up matches in Afghanistan and Libya we could take Calais again, after all it has only been a few hundred years since we gave it them back.

As the major is typing on a phone keyboard and without the sort of connection I would prefer, let’s keep this brief.

Yesterday was stunning … Margot Did supplied us with a wonderful 25/1 winner from a single selection – my twitter, Facebook and phone were awash with happy punters – I am chuffed for you all and have another big price horse today!!

The Ebor

Low draws can be important in the early positioning in this race and with ground dead / tacky I think there are possibilities of narrowing the field down.

The one I have settled on is harlequin times for John Dunlop at 25/1. Lightening does not strike twice…. Does it??

On the premier league pitches this weekend I am sticking to my established premier teams to give newcomers a beating.

So far we have had 4 footy bets in the new season.. All winners.

Today I opt for Wigan and Stoke both to win away… At 2/1 and 5/2 it is a mothership double 210 return from 20 – I particularly like the Stoke element.

Tonight the major eats moules I suggest something similar for you too.

Courage followers and shuffle the cards.