Monthly Archives: May 2011

Ffos Las Mid Week Tip – Tuesday Thunderbolt!!

The Majors Saturday Service was a bit of a dissapointment, plenty of win bets ran into places and Barcelona did as expected but overall it put a dent in the Majors May (still nearly 40% up).

A tasty horseracing bet landing in good style is what is needed and the Major has found it, running in the handicap hurdle on Tuesday evenings Ffos Las card. 7.15pm is the scheduled time, good ground is expected.

There are a number of contenders and the favourite is Praxiteles who is currently 3/1. There is a long list of things to like about this one. The drop in class was probably a big factor in the recent Stratford win but the conditions will also have helped and he will get much the same at Ffos Las. Considerably of interest. The horse is 3 from 7 on good ground or better as opposed to 1 from 6 on softer than that. The young jockeys claim of 5lb negates the large part of a 7lb rise for the latest win, the payoff being that the marvelous Dickie Johnson is no longer in the saddle.

Lucy Jones’, Domino Dancer is another that will like conditions. The more sun baked the better for this one. Up 14lbs for two wins where he has been able to dominate, he might not get the opportunity to do that here, he looks an honest sort but I feel he would need more improvement off this mark.

Space Telescope is another that is sure to enjoy conditions – Off track since August when flopping in a Class 3 race, his two former efforts both victories saw him rise to a mark of 115. This is a Galileo progeny and is sure to be involved in the mix up – It should take well to Ffos Las.

Of those at bigger prices, I have to say that Heron Bay is worth a sniff at 14/1. A summer sort for a yard in sparkling form.

Overall the two that stand out are Praxiteles and Space Telescope.

My staking strategy is as follows:

For the Major (and the official record): 1pt Space Telescope 1 pt Praxiteles , 0.5 pt reverse forecast

Champions League Tips on the Saturday Service – Haydock and Newmarket Tips too

The Major has been in terrific form, more mid-week winners followed last week-ends fabulous winners of 12/1, 4/1, 8/13 and more – Shabash!

Let us have more of that oh happy band of punting warriors.  Well done if you were on, let us go back to the breach and drive our lance point in to the enemies torso again.

Good morning and welcome to the Saturday Service, not from Defford but from rural Oxfordshire. Yes the Major has gone to sample the Oxon air and is camping. The Major has not camped in some while and after one night, I can say it has returned long forgotten dusty memories. Cold hands, tent fabrics flapping, the smell of grass….

Camping reminds you of how luxurious our lives have become. Needing to travel to collect water, using commodities like heat and dry space sparingly, carefully calculating each move. A few nights yes, any more, I can suggest some nice Oxford hotels. Nothing stops the Major from posting on a Saturday though and so I hope you appreciate the effort required to get into a wi-fi zone as equally as you understand the brief nature of the post.

To the racing. It is not the most spectacular weekend of racing and we certainly feel in the shadow of two looming racing bonanza’s. The Derby is around the corner with the interest of the Queens horse being favourite and a French upstart looking to upset the national pride. Then we have Royal Ascot where a number of cracking contests are bubbling up. We do have a few punting opportunities today though.

3.25 Newmarket – Sprint

This is a tasty little 6f contest for three year olds and a number of conundrums are set to be answered. The ground could be a significant factor as it is uncertain how much rain Newmarket is set to have. The favourite and one that certainly looks likely is L’ami Louis.

This handicap debutante seems to have improved for each run, particularly when winning on second appearance this term at Salisbury, form that has been held up.

You cannot deny that the Pricewise selection, Desert Law, is interesting. Thrown in to contest the Mill Reef, this one finished a respectable 7th. That was only the second run and Desert Law finished the season with an impressive maiden win at HQ, no run this season but looks a likely sort.

Off these two, I prefer L’ami Louis mainly due to the two runs the horse has enjoyed this season. Of the others, What About You is a dangerous entry and the Major does like Avonmore Star. Not an obvious candidate, this one looks quite highly tried but represents top connections and I think 6f on the Rowley Mile will be up this ones street. 16/1 (general) is a bit dismissive.

On balance, considering that this race normally goes to a higher rated individual with a bit more experience, I am not afraid to look further up the weights. Avonmore Star is the each way selection, have a slice – Corals go 18/1, see if you can get that.

3.35pm Timeform Jury Stakes (Group 3)

Regal Parade looks all the rage this morning. A high class individual with a couple of Group 1 successes under his belt, he is due to be penalised for the second which would have meant racing off 9 stone 7 lbs, rather than his allotted 9 stone 0. From a highly respected sprinting yard, a worthy favourite. I always like my Dandy Nicholls horses when well backed in a sprint.

Beacon Lodge has started his campaign well and looks a place prospect at least. Both he and Regal could do with a drop of rain and it is uncertain as to the starting conditions, which adds to the challenge of picking a winner.

The Cheka is an interesting contender. This one looks like a semi permanent bridesmaid but I am sure there is a win out of it one day. It almost picked up a Group 3 in Ireland this season but was mugged on the line, Tom Queally is one of the Majors favourite jockeys.

Overall, I am swayed to think the ground will not soften up appreciately. This allows me to seek a bit of value from Kakatosi who will want it as firm as he can get it. He will be stripping fit and further improvement can be expected.

Two pieces of advice. Get stuck into Regal Parade who really should win and have a saver on Kakatosi who is overpriced. 2/1 and 10/1 available.

7.05 Cartmel

Regular readers know that the Major brings you the big races and the betting opportunities he spots at lesser meetings. Cartmel holds one of it’s bank holiday feasts – If you are ever in the lakes it is well worth a visit. The racing is basic but the course delightful.

In the 7.05 the eye catcher on jockey booking is Mighty Magnus. Denis O’ Regan turns up for just one ride.

To the sports…

Champions League Final Tips

As a win bet, I advise Barcelona at 11/10. A lot will be made of Alex Ferguson and his ability to coax a good result from the scenario but he is playing with a busted flush. Giggs and Carrick may look good against the normal Premier League fare but against an all time great looking Barcelona three, I doubt they will look as controlled.

The bet of the game for me would be 0-0 at half time. Neither side is going to be too enthusiastic in coming forward too early and 15/8 generally is a great shout.

It is well worth having a scout around the free bet offers for this game. Bet365 offer a £50 free in play bet for £50 staked before kick off (that will be popular), Paddy Power offer to refund first goalscorer and other markets if Barca win, generous!

Finally, Torquay look a terrific price at 7/4 too to win against Stevenage. The latter will be missing key defender, Jon Ashton and Torquay look like they have the tools to do the job.

Tonight, the Major eats Al Fresco, I suggest you do the same, barbecue some nice Kebabs and down a nice Prosecco. Enjoy, it is good to bet, to live under the stars, to return to basic emotion for a while, feel alive young men.

More Major Winners! Tuesdays Ripon Tip Goes In – Punchestown Wednesday Evening – Payday Haymaker

Tuesdays tip went in continuing the strong run of May horseracing form – Advised at 11/4, went in at a well backed 9/4 (not the Majors money), Barkstons Ash stocked the bank.

Thank you to those that sent notes of thanks – On the back of a monster weekend, it is fair to say we are in a rich vein of form. Remember though, the Major needs no thanks or beers, although I have never knowingly refused an offer of a drink! The information is free, do with it what you choose, I charge not and give no refund. Honest sporting opinion is all you get – We remain 25% up year to date.

There is a tasty 2m hurdle contest at Punchestown tomorrow night and it is worth the Majors consideration.

This is a lowly enough contest, 8,000 Euros is up for grabs and it somehow feels wrong that Sublimity a Champion Hurdle winner at the age of eleven is reduced to competing in this. That is probably a bit harsh but what does the boy owe? He is unlikely to compete at the top level again and surely a retirement beckons. This may seem like strong stuff and you would be right to accuse the Major of never having ridden a horse, let alone trained one – I would accept connections both are more knowledgeable and have a right to run him – It could end in tears, this comment is not a reflection on Sublimity’s chances, which we will get to.

Sublimity is 11, Won in the Dark seems as old to the Major, incredible he is just 7, a horse with years ahead of it, it seems like a horse that has been around an awful long time. A highly tried hurdler, who has contested Champion Hurdles no less. This is his 37th outing and to give you a flavour of his record, it includes a 10l grade one victory and some pretty comprehensive defeats, in fact 30 defeats.

Won in the Dark seems to be most consistent (not a word you would associate with this one) on better ground which he will get at Punchestown. I read an excellent article from Richard Hughes in the Saturday Racing Post which suggested tracks were reluctant to confirm ground on the dry side as it might put trainers off. I suspect Punchestowns good might be pretty dry with the winds and local conditions, any precipitation will not soften up what will be a dead surface.

As an evens favourite (likely price, no market open) – Won in the Dark makes little appeal on pure record. Yes, he has the requisite class but will he turn up? The signs are a little inconsistent but nethertheless quite interesting. My first view was that his strike rate was too concerning. However, it seems connections are happy to revert to 2m after trying to end the poor runs by stepping up to three at the last festival where Big Bucks showed him short of utter top class, that said, the form is pretty good, Quevega put just 9l between WITD and the finish post at the Punchestown festival. Can you trust this serial loser? Conditions are as good as you can get for him but the reliability level is not high.

Made in Taipan has the advantage of a Ruby Walsh ride. This nine year old showed good form earlier this season without being sensational. Connections took the odd move of running him the day after a chase fall when he won a hurdle race and he is likely fit. His last few runs were poor over fences but his earlier hurdling form is better.

Sublimity would also win of back to eat form – at 11 racing on good ground over the minimum trip, I cannot feel confident.

The rest are monkeys.

With just the two favourites to consider, I would have to take the outsider of the two Made in Taipan. At a likely 7/2, he is more likely to run his race and not get flustered by the big field. Thomas Mullins is in tip top form. Win bet advised.

Of the outsiders, Action Master has probably got a race in him. Each way squeak.

The title of this post included the word haymaker. A wild punch, a swing….

Made in Taipan or Won in the Dark…. yep I don’t know. It is close, a forecast?

The Major has to back Made in Taipan. There is no guarantee that Won in the Dark turns up on a good day. Granted there is little better chance that Made in Taipan will either but… at the prices, you are given more leeway with the Thomas Mullins horse – It is likely WITD will go off odds-on. That for a horse that has not won in a year and a half. Made in Taipan has the taste of blood in his mouth after being returned to hurdling and Walsh in the saddle to steer.

I have a slight concern that Made in Taipan has no course win but overall, I would think 5/2 would be fair. I expect 7/2 and hope for 4/1. If my reading of the race is right take a one point win bet and let us see if we cannot get the bank to grow further.

No need to go crazy. Plenty of time for that later – Shabash young warriors.

Tuesday Tips – Ripon 4.10 Have a Slice and Thank Me Later

The Major has updated his stats and can report that overall we remain in strong profit for the year.

After 4 and a half months of the year and nearly 300 pieces of advice, the Major is 24% in profit.  You would be better off if you only listened to the racing selections where a 37% profit has been recorded.  A mild loss on football advice of -1% and other sports of -11% demonstrates that the Major needs to work harder off the track.

Tomorrows racing at Ripon offers a decent chance in the 4.10 handicap.

The stand out horse for the Major is Barkstons Ash who is on the upgarde and has nothing to prove on the surface.  His trainer is in tip top form (5 from 12 in last fortnight) and he will go fine in the conditions.  His last two wins have seen him go up 12lbs but this only returns him to his previous handicap debut mark as a 2 year old.  In Centre Focus.

Finns Rainbow will be better than the Major thinks if he is able to switch his Southwell form back to good ground at Ripon.  His 18lb meteoric rise up the handicap may come to a close.

The main risk for the Major and the one to place a saver on and possibly take in a reverse forecast is Proper Charlie.  Jamie Spencer is a rare booking for this stable and while he has not won in 5 rides for them, he has placed on three efforts.  Likely to strip fitter for the reappearance run, I would watch like a hawk for money, currently 6/1.

Get stuck into Barkstons Ash and send me the postcard.

Survival Sunday – The Majors Tips, plus Goldikova, the Irish 1,000 Guineas – Amazing Saturday Service Results

The Saturday Service from the Major was the most successful of the year to date. Winners at 12/1 Sole Power and the Irish 1,000 guineas winner (Roderic O Connor) 4/1 from a handful of advices secured some good profits.

Apparently, there are bars in Birmingham now where I am welcome without my wallet. Nonsense I say, while the Major is moderately profitable all of the time, the big paydays only come along every now and then. I owe nothing, yet nothing is owed Well done to you Brumaggens who kept some plugging away at the selections.

Sunday is here, Survival Sunday…. In each of the games effecting relegation threatened teams, there are a gaggle of permutations regarding matters away from their own game.

Par example, If Wolves were losing by a single goal but Spurs and Manchester United were hammering their rivals, then you would not want to be on a Wolves draw why? This is because if Wolves lose by a single goal and two of Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan lose, then they stay up. In that scenario, why would they push forward exposing themselves to conceding a second which might send them down?

There are lots of scenarios that could play out that could effect a teams approach to the game. In general, I would be backing Wolves to beat Blackburn. Wolves have done their best work in recent weeks and McCarthy sounds serious about getting the job done.

It is an interesting game at West Ham where both they and today’s opponents Sunderland seem to have checked out for the season. Nothing is backable there in my view.

I did put the Wolves draw up yesterday but am less confident today, they may only need a point and with Doyle absent, they may have to settle for just one. Blues look like they have none of the requisite firepower to trouble Tottenham in normal circumstances. They score too few goals and while Gardner, Bowyer and Ferguson play controlled possession football, it lacks a cutting edge. That said, they are likely to be the most fired up of the two teams on show at White Hart Lane and I am loathed to go against them.

Stoke is a bet I like. Wigan have looked reasonable in recent weeks as they battle the drop but they are against a tough team here. Stoke will guive them a more thorough examination than Villa or West Ham. I fancy Pulis to have his men wound up to finish a good season on a high note. 7/4 is too big, I think we can count on Stoke coming to the party. My only football bet today will be Stoke to beat Wigan.

12.45pm Longchamp – Prix D’Ispahan

Goldikova, one of the outstanding mares of her generation makes her final seasonal reappearance at Longchamp today with trainer Freddie Head reporting her in good fettle. If she turns up in reasonable spirit it should be enough to take this. She is not only top class but ultra reliable and I would be surprised if Head, an outstanding trainer, has not got her well looked after. Of the opposition, Dick Turpin has some class but loses too often for the Major, there is a race in him but not this one.

Byword looks great each way value and given some development from 4 to 5, you could expect more trouble for Goldikova from this one. He is likely to be fitter after a reappearance run. The two races Byword finished last season on were fairly poor though and at 4/1 there is not much allowance for that.

The others look short of top class. As the Major is not worried about Dick Turpin, I suggest a win bet on Goldikova 5/6 and a double with Stoke!

I hope she does win and I hope to see her against Frankel / Canford Cliffs in a mouth watering show down, bring it on.

The Irish 1,000 Guineas – The Curragh 4.15pm

There are many questions about this years leading 1m crop of fillies. Together who almost took the British 1,000 (probably the smartest piece of form on show) achieved that on the back of nearly ten runs and is clearly not a reliable proposition. That said it is dangerous to rule out an O’Brien horse in an Irish classic as the Major proved yesterday with Roderic O Connors all the way success in the boys event.

Misty for Me is of significant interest from the same stable. Very often O’Brien horses need their first run of a campaign (like Roderic) and Misty for Me was certainly the best juvenile filly in Ireland last year. If we can put a line through the reappearance run and assume she trained on then 10/1 is an absolute steal. Most Irish 1,000 Guineas winners need a run in the current season, a trend we can support as it makes sense. (Remember one of the Majors rules is to check the sense of any trend before applying it – As per my betting resolutions, it is no use relying on a twenty year trend in football such as Wigan have not won at Stoke for x years, what has that got to do with today? Am I to believe that Wigan players are traumatised by this information!) – In this case it makes utter sense, against the top milers we need a filly that is fit and ready.

On balance, I am wary of Misty for Me, think Together will get beat and am going to support Eminya. She is lightly raced but out of top connections and with a big stage jockey. If she breaks better than last tie, she will be seen in better light, coming out of stall 9, I don’t think Johhny will panic if she misses the break slightly though. She is presently 6/1 with Ladbrookes – Have a slice.

Finally, Beggars Opera goes again in the 4.05 at Fakenham (I bring you all the top action) – This one was tailed off when fancied by the Major. The booking of McCoy again asks questions – I am not advising it or backing it but feel it is sure to win unburdened by my wager, such is the Gamblers existence.