Definite Breather Required

Sometimes it is worth taking a breather in this game!!  After a drubbing on the last two selections, gathering thoughts is the best medicene and so I intent to break for a couple of days.  Plus it helps protect the montsh profit!

No doubt Ade will chip in at some point with a couple of each way whispers and we shall see what happens!

I am also looking into the prospects of racing in France while I am away on hols from 12th June for two weeks.  I fancy going to a French track and understand it is very cheap and good fun.

Nice to see some of the international stars coming over, takeover Target is now in the UK, hope this old boy (relatively) can put up a good show again.

From the Curragh to Newmarket – Sunday Spirit Required

First of all it is hard to lose after picking the three horses from nine that will fill the places but that is what The Major achieved for the Irish 2000 Guineas!  To be fair Mastercraftsmen looked excellent and showed just how well Coolmores come on for the run.  O’Brien says he is Ascot  bound and it will be good to see him later in the season.

I like a conundrum in a race, I like it when I feel there is something to solve.  Essential to that process is a feeling that I can solve it.  The 1,000 guineas is not a race I feel I can.  The form lines are less certain than in the colts race from yesterday and with the gluepot ground another factor, I choose to steer clear.

So off to HQ and the 5.15 6f race.  Here is the market:

Jimmy Styles	4.6
Abraham Lincoln	5.8
Musaalem	7.2
Thebes	8.4
Everymanforhimself	8.8
Striking Spirit	11
Mac Gille Eoin	17.5
Orpenindeed	26
Ebraam	40
Silver Wind	17.5

Here is my thinking – Jimmy Styles is an odd favourite and one I would take on.  He was beaten on reappreance after a long injury by Striking Spirit who reopposes today on terms half a stone worth.  There is reason therefore to believe Jimmy will turn the form but I am not sure and at the prices Striking Spirit is exceptional value.

Thebes will make this an honest enough contest and will bowl along ion front although this honest but exposed type will be setting it up in my view.

Striking Spirit might look like sprint king Dandy Nicholls second string but I am not sure it is.  This yard often has a second string beat the first and while Abraham Lincoln the supposed first string carries the prefered jock and is shorter in the market, I think Spirit is just as entitled to have come on for the outing as Jimmy Styles and a 7lb penalty is not to rule him out.  Abraham has a G1 entry so was clearly fancied but I just don’t like the value.

The Haggas horse Musaalem has confidence behind it and leaving a poor end of season behind, you can make a case for it on its earlier runs.  Haggas is in terrific form and so could be a danger to all but I choose to think it will need this.

Advice: Striking Spirit Win 11 £5 Place 3.2 £5 – Good luck

The Curragh – First Irish Classic 2,000 Guineas

3.45 Curragh – Irish 2,000 Guineas

This race would be much easier to work on if the ground was so stinkingly sticky which throws up a number of unknown factors into the equation.

Looking at this last night I was tempted into just focussing on proven ground horses and I had the market priced differently to the major bookmakers.  This morning it was shaped more how I priced it with Mastercraftsmen as favourite.  Sadly, my money was not down!

I was attracted to Drumbeat and Mastercraftsmen who certainly have proven form on this type of surface.  The former is the pricewise horse and seemed decent value at 12/, 11/1 guaranteed with skybet  until 9am.

Here is the current market (1.50pm)

Mastercraftsman	2.8
Delegator	4.3
Rayeni	5.4
Drumbeat	13
Recharge	14.5
Soul City	17.5
Fergus Mciver	38
Hail Caesar	95
Viceroy Of India	400

Certainly the usual Pricewise crash has not happened and in a sense it does not surpise me.  Drumbeat looks the second string of four for Coolmore and whilst it is not unusual for them to have the supposed first horse beaten by a stablemate, I would be surprised if they would do it today at the Curragh and manage to leave the money behind.  Certainly Drumbeats second to Fame and Glory is decent enough form but at the crunch, does he have the class?

Delegator is a mixed message horse.  Hard to intepret whether his second to See the Stars in the English Guineas is as good as the form book suggests.  I think he had to come off the bridle earlier than Jamie Spencer would have liked and on the day that made him an easy target for Sea the Stars – He is entitled to be better today but is he going to handle the super sticky surface. The dam says yes, the sire says no!  Who knows, probably in terms of potential, Delegator is probably the most exciting prospect but I am not sure he will shine.  The flip flop with Mastercraftsmen says a lot, again I would be surprised if the confidence was rock solid if they were prepared to leave their money behind on this one.. good but not solid enough.

Mastercraftsmen was the one for me last night – At the price, sadly I hesitated and it has gone.  Frankly he has won it dire conditions over course and distance and I am confident he will finish in front of Delegator which on most form lines is enough to win it.  Coolmore have taken the race 4 out of the last ten runnings and out of their embarrasment of riches, it is telling they rely on Mastercraftsmen.

Viceroy of India is a pacemaker and I hope that Coolmore avoid any moer controversy as he gets out of the way two furlongs from home.

Recharge has no proven ground form and the trainer has shown a bit iof reservation about conditions and I choose to overlook.

Rayeni is more of a threat to Mastercraftsmen than Delegator is my view.  5.4 is not a bad price for a horse that enjoys a bit of a mud battle as shown in his 2yo season runs.  Mick Kinane is as proven a jockey as required for these occassions and I can see him adding to the English version (making it a trainer and jockey guineas double) with his booked ride today.  Less exposed than most, a danger to all…

Soul City for me is an intruiging runner.  Having beaten Gan Ahmras and Intense Focus, this is no mug horse.  The ground looks less of a concern as he has acted on it before and he has plenty of experience.  He is well travelled and experience.

The three in the mix for the Major are Mastercraftsmen, Reyani and Soul City.  I think the market hasgot the pricing about right which makes it tough to call it.  However, the eyecacther for me is Rayeni.  Unexposed, unbeaten.. interesting.  Mastercraftsmen has to possibly improve although ground no concern, Delegator has ground questions……… load your weapons

Advice Rayeni £20 win 5.5 – Best of luck

News Flash! Ades Tip is In

Looks like Ade needed very little mental recuperation and has delivered:

BRIGHTON
17.25 – CHARLIE DELTA

The Major is to have £5 at 7.4 win and £8 at 2.44 place – good luck

7.50 Haydock – Prime the Cannons

7.50 Haydock – Prime the Cannons

Before settling on Haydock, I had a look at the Newcastle card – I have never been to Newcastle in my life but it looks like a bag of fun.  Maybe a session up there accompanying some racing would be the thing to do.  I have been thinking it would be nice to visit every racecourse in Britain, France and Ireland as I have not crossed many off yet.  I am sure it could be done in a year if you had the money… hmmmm..

This class 4 5f sprint is an interesting little event.  I love cards like this with many viable winners.  Many of these are truly exposed and it often comes down to who will run their race on the day. 

As long as there is no bounce, I would expect a  big run from Divine Spirit.  Widely available as joint 9/2 favourite, it might look a bit mean on some evidence.  He is rarely in the winners enclosure, managing just one visit last season.  However his reappearance spin at Thirsk will have done him good and the 2nd was a decent bit of form, losing to a half decent sort.  Royston Ffrench gets on well with the hose 4 wins, 5 places from 14 starts and he goes on all surfaces.  The chief concern is that this is not his time of year!  3 places and no wins from 20 runs in April and May.  The Thirsk run was decent though and with Equuleus Pictor behind in fourth and meeting today on worse terms….. of clear interest.  Plus, no ground concerns does not equal ‘loves conditions’

Whatashirtful also lines up and this horse rarely mis-fires with 70% of his runs ending in a place (16 from 21) – This looks bolt on for a place too.  Front runs and loves the ground just seems to run into better sorts, possibly a touch of seconditis.

Another of interest is Bertoliver at a price.  14/1 is big for a horse who has shown glimpses of quality, Dascombe can get a lot of improvement out of this type and I am not sure what to make of the unusual jockey booking of Richard Smith.  Not one of Tom Ds usual pilots, he has a ride booked tomorrrow too – I am choosing to believe that this horse is set to be a decent handicapper and this run is part of the plot for the future and today is not the day… risky mind.

The 11/2 about Rocker looks decent.  This horse has made massive improvement in his last 4 runs and arguably his 1 1/2 length defeat to cake is as good as anything on offer.  Richard Mullen rides for the first time.

Hotham won a class 2 last term although it doesnt look like well franked form.  Foxy Dancer was close up that day but hasnt gone on.  Hotham however has come back down the weights and at the price makes some ew appeal.  Recent runs have puched the price out but back in trip and on the right ground today, a better run is possible.

Advice:  OK – Time to prime the cannons.  I like Divine a lot but fear the bounce.  Anything could win but I am going for Hotham at 20/1 with many firms.  As a saver Whatashirtful was to place BUT IS A NON RUNNER – Rocker steps up for me – This is how I am doing it

Hotham win 21 £6

Rocker win 6.8 £2

Hotham place 4.4 £4

Rocker place 1.78 £18