Fair tidings I wish to thee from a cold frosty Defford, where the Major has taken the early morning air, breathing in the coldness until it hurts the lungs. Returning to the kitchen table where the coffee has been bubbling away, a beautiful morning.
- Oh yeah baby, Big Bucks is your daddy
Recent tipping form from the Major has left an awful lot to be desired, in fact, it has been dreadful. If you have made a purposeful visit this morning, I urge you to consider your mental health, it must be akin to that of your bank roll. I thank you though and hope to reward you with a turn in fortune to fill your purse with the enemies riches. This is our Stalingrad, do not call it a comeback, we were never gone. All brave warriors experience despair and darkness before the final true reincarnation to ultimate deliverance, read the bible, we shall rise again so daub your war paint and sharpen the lance point.
This week, Chris Graham of Sportingbet tweeted to ask for help in amassing the best sporting moments in 2011 which he is compiling into a podcast. After consideration, I overlooked McIlroy (which even for a non golf fan like myself was sensational), I thought of Mark Cavendish who probably achieved more but settled for a moment of pure poetry from my favourite sport. Kauto was moving, but no….. Frankel was explosive, again no….. Hayley winning her G1 on Dream Ahead seemed special but no…..
The image of the teenager Michael Barzalona in a Derby photo finish bolt upright in his stirrups, arm vertical to the heavens, wow. The impudence and confidence of youth, to judge that Pour Moi has the momentum to win and to celebrate so audaciously, such an outpouring of joy, that image was poetic and no BHA campaign could ever do more good for our fine sport than that.
- Sports moment of the year for the Major
Once the podcast that Chris is preparing is complete, I will post a link so we can see whether we were included and what others thought worthy. I am thinking of following up with my own end of year top ten horseracing moments of 2011, perhaps early January.
While I am on ‘mentions’, a big thank you to William Hill who sent me four tickets to the Kempton winter meet, second day…. Cheers guys, I shall now galvanise a hardy bunch who fancy a day in the bracing Surrey air to clear the Christmas heads. Let me know if interested.
The Major set up a social gambling club this year, called the King George Club, essentially members bet on behalf of the group and all winnings are kept in a communal pot. The most profitable member has to bet the lot on the King George at Kempton and if we win, we share all winnings equally, very social, perhaps slightly influenced by the teachings of Marx. We have just over (as Steve Palmer would say) a bag of sand to throw at it and it looks like it could be Mr Dipper to throw the dart. We are setting it up again for next year so if interested, again let me know.
Finally I am going to run a post soon on the best people to follow on twitter for horseracing fans. Again, I will get round to it, but if you don’t follow already, consider the Major (@tdl123) – It won’t enhance your life but it will make me happy.
To the sports….
The Lough Derg Long Walk – Ascot Grade 1
How fantastic to see such a good race named after Lough Derg, the bold as brass stayer who never lost for want of trying.
Here are a few numbers….. 1113, 999849, 4/20, 13. Any ideas?
They all relate to Big Bucks… 1113 days since his last defeat (which includes 13 races), £999,849 is his career winnings, 4/20 losses on British soil and 13 is his tally of Grade 1 or Grade 2 wins. Plus, he still has plenty of time to add to that!
This horse is truly the most accomplished in training and 1/3 does not look like a bad price for those who like to buy a bit of money.
I have to say that for the Major, I generally do not back Big Bucks. Largely because of the prohibitive odds but also his habit of getting off the bridle early in his races, it never looks good even if he always delivers.
Today, the only bet I could advise in this race is courtesy of a concession bordering on the crazy. Ladbrokes, the chief sponsor on the day are offering a refund on horses finishing second to Big Bucks. That surely makes Dynaste a bet to nothing. I love these competitive Saturdays with the enemy competing for our custom with loss making offers.
This Pipe horse deserves a crack at the champion even if he is rated a stone inferior. Pipe knows all about Big Bucks having chased him home with Grand Crus on several occasions, 5/1 with the magic sign surely makes it a bet to nothing.
1.20 Lingfield
The Major likes to bring you tips from the top races of the day but I also like the >£2k races in which my highly tuned sense of smell for a developing gamble can sometimes give us the great early value. Last night on Facebook, I put up Irons on Fire as a candidate, a horse so well treated on old form, it just stood out. Last night 7/1, this morning 11/4…. someone is paying for Christmas in the Majors view.
Even at 11/4, I do not think the price should stop you playing, I suspect a remarkable return to form and Irons on Fire scooting up to joyous scenes in the winners enclosure….. Thank you Jesus.
The Ladbroke
A fine handicap to close any day of racing and this is an opportunity to get a value punt in. This is the most valuable European handicap hurdle and as a result you get the best up and coming horses seeking to exploit their unexposed marks.
This is why as much as I like Marsh Warbler and Brampour, I have to overlook them in favour of something tastier down the weights.
The most obvious candidate is 5/1 Prospect Wells, a good flat horse now running for Nicholls and really fits the profile. A mark of 142 seems reasonable I just wonder if firmer conditions won’t be his thing, we shall see. Jockey booking of Walsh may seem important but I think Brampour would have had Nicholls nephew Derham aboard, regardless of horse ability, after the emotional win at Cheltenham. It is interesting though that Ruby rides Prospect Wells who is kept in the handicap proper by his stablemate – The flood of antepost money tells a story too. I would not put anyone off a Prospect Wells win bet.
I am going with two at bigger prices and suggesting one at odds that seem to dismiss any chance of victory, to a casual observer.
Viva Colonia is the first at 16/1. This horse finished well at Cheltenham when behind Brampour on last outing and it was an eye-catching surge. He was raised just 3lbs for that effort while the winner went up 10lbs, at the price, given some opportunity to come on for that run, I am having a slice.
The other selection is Gibb River, Hendersons string have been in such fine order and I have to say that at 9/1, this is an each way steal.
For those that like a monster price, Ciceron avoids being out of the handicap, again thanks to Brampours involvement. At least this selection will be fine on the ground, at 50/1 if the stable were in better form I would be tempted but no wins from the last 33 runners puts me off, shame I like a 50/1 steamer!
1.55 Graduation Chase
It looks to me like all the fun will be for the Paddy Power 4th, Aerial who has come in to dispute favouritism with Hell’s Bay.
I am all for the latter who has shown the best form by a stone and I think he will win so 7/4 is not bad. I would wait to place that bet though because I think he will drift as the money comes for the Nicholls horse. That is almost certain to happen in my view because I am sure as soon as a Nicholls winner goes in (of which there is ample chance with Big Bucks / Prospect Wells et al), the sheep will open their wallets.
That said, what about the others outside of the top two? Well there is an eye catcher. Soixante has not shown nearly enough to win on existing form but I do think this race will suit and 40/1 is the wrong price. Have a slice of that and send me the postcard.
To the other sports (Fairyhouse included!)
The wheels finally came off the Spurs bus which has carried me a long way this season, 2/5 against a possibly rejuvenated Sunderland is nor price.
I think the 11/5 about West Brom coming away from an unconvincing Blackburn is particularly attractive. Mr Hill, for once, I can see it! Take a piece of that.
I also like the 11/13 price about Newcastle getting the job done at home to Swansea.
finally Hull at evens to win at home against Millwall is like finding money in the street, load a new cartridge in the money printer for this one.
I suggest a lucky 15 on Mount Colah (banker in the opener at Fairyhouse), Hull, West Brom and Hells Bay. That should pay for a new pair of shoes!
This evening may you dine well, entertain the flaxen haired wanton piece. you know the sort, the curl of the lip, a saucy smile, knowing look and reckless sense of abandon. Tip well and at the midnight hour consider how good it is to be alive in this fine age of ours.
Courage and roll those dice.
UK Horseracing Tips - The Major 